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Every time we had a spike in inflation above 5% – it was followed by a recession other than 1 time in the last 70 years.
WHAT IS A RECESSION?
A recession is technically defined as 6 months – or two back to back quarters of negative growth.
HOW DO WE MEASURE GROWTH?
Growth is measured by the GDP – the gross domestic product which you can also find here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP, you can see the most recent recession – started in Q1 of 2020, there was a dip in growth, and then a huge dip in GDP in Q2 of 2020 which officially made it a recession.
WILL THERE BE AN ACTUAL RECESSION?
Check this out: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP… going back as far as the 1950s, anytime we’ve had an inflation reading above 5%, we got a recession which are those grey columns in chart above.
WHAT IS INFLATION NOW?
Inflation is nearing 7% right now which means based on historical evidence, there’s a good chance we’ll get two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
HOW DOES THE STOCK MARKET DO IN A RECESSION?
That’s the real question! We’ve had 30 recessions between 1869 and 2018. Now of those 30, 16 recessions have had a positive stock market return from when they started – to when they finished.
The positive stock market recessions lasted on average – 16 months and stocks ranged a return between 0.7% to 38.1% with an average return of 9.8% despite the fact that the GDP declined on average 3%.
HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE?
They found the correlation between recessions as measured by the GDP growth and the stock-market at nearly -0.05. So it’s almost 0 correlation between a recession and the stock market. The 14 recessions when the stock market went down, lasted 18 months on average, with an average return of -14.2%.
SHOULD I SELL ALL MY STOCKS?
In order to beat a buy-and-hold return of 9.0% over the last 150 years, an investor would have to successfully predict 77% of the market turns —and move in and out of stocks/cash as appropriate (Russell Investments: https://russellinvestments.com/us/blo…).
Even if you knew for sure when a recession was coming, the odds of losing or making money is about 50/50.
History says it’s nearly impossible to time the market.
El éxito empresarial y la abundancia están muy cerca de ti, ya que tú tienes las herramientas necesarias para conseguirlo, lo único que necesitas es seguir tu intuición cómo Carlos Marquez al iniciar su camino en el comercio.
En este #LIVE te comparte cómo hacerlo con base a su experiencia.